The good news: 83% of those surveyed say their lives overall are either “Great” or “Good.” The bad news: 24% say they are worse off financially than before the pandemic.

Each of the 410 respondents in the 808 Poll of the general public in Hawaiʻi was asked to rate aspects of their personal lives and their communities. In addition to the percentage results, an average score was also calculated. The higher the average score, the more positive the overall perception; 4.0 would be a perfect score and 1.0 is the lowest score possible.

The 808 Poll asked the same questions in October 2024; for the most part, the variations in scores between that poll and this one were small and within the margin of error for a survey of this size. The one exception was the perception of local government overall, which fell from an average score of 2.77 last October to 2.38 this April.

Your Finances: Pre-Pandemic vs. Now

Each respondent in the 808 Poll of the general public was asked: The pandemic hit in early 2020. Compared with just before the pandemic, how much has your financial situation recovered?

We asked that question and others about inflation, the Trump administration, insurance and more in surveys of local business leaders and members of the general public.

Among the general public, groups that are most worried are males, people age 18 to 34, those 65 and older, Native Hawaiians and the least affluent respondents.

Impact of Federal Decisions on Your Life

In both surveys, respondents were asked:

HAVE YOU OR YOUR FAMILY’S FINANCIAL OR EMPLOYMENT SITUATIONS BEEN AFFECTED BY ACTIONS TAKEN BY PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP’S NEW ADMINISTRATION, INCLUDING THE DEPARTMENT OF GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY, OR DOGE?

How Are You Dealing with Inflation and Higher Interest Rates?

In the BOSS Survey, business owners and executives were asked:

IF THEY TOOK ANY OF THE FOLLOWING ACTIONS TO PERSONALLY COPE WITH INFLATION AND HIGH INTEREST RATES.

Respondents could say yes to as many situations as applied to them personally.

Higher Cost of Home and Hurricane Insurance

Respondents in both surveys were asked about the:

PERSONAL IMPACT THAT THE HIGHER COST OF HOME AND HURRICANE INSURANCE HAS HAD ON THEM AND THEIR FAMILIES.

Each of the 341 participants in the BOSS Survey were asked:
The pandemic began in March 2020. Compared with late 2019, how much has your business revenue and profit recovered?

Of course, businesses that failed since 2019 are no longer around to answer the BOSS Survey.

Companies that said they had hired people in the last year were asked
which best describes their hiring process:

Each respondent was asked:
How often, if at all, do you choose local suppliers, even if the cost is 10% or more higher than other suppliers?

Survey methodology

Hawai‘i Business Magazine contracts with Anthology Research to conduct the BOSS Survey and 808 Poll twice a year.

In the BOSS Survey of local business owners and senior executives – conducted by phone and online – the sample of companies surveyed is stratified based on number of employees. Businesses with one to nine employees are designated as “very small” and those with 10 to 49 employees are designated as “small.” Medium-sized firms are those with 50 to 99 employees; companies with 100 or more employees are classified as “large.”

A total of 341 random interviews were conducted from April 15 to June 30 on the four biggest islands. The data is weighted to reflect the proper proportions of each company size based on its number of employees as reported by the Hawai‘i Department of Labor.

A sample of this size has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.31 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

A secondary goal was to interview businesses that derive relatively significant proportions of their revenue from the construction industry. A total of 72 were surveyed in this segment.

In the 808 Poll of the general public, 410 online surveys were conducted from April 11 to 30. Respondents were screened to ensure they were at least 18 years old and full-time residents of Hawai‘i.

The margin of error for a sample of this size is plus or minus 4.84 percentage points with a 95% confidence level. The data is weighted to reflect population estimates of adults in Hawai‘i based on ethnicity.

Want your voice in the next BOSS Survey?

If you are the owner or a senior executive at a business operating in Hawai‘i and want to provide your responses for the next BOSS Survey, email stevep@hawaiibusiness.com.

We asked the 341 participants in the BOSS Survey:

To what degree, if at all, is your business using artificial intelligence?

Those using AI in the workplace were asked to describe how they use it. In general terms, the top five uses of AI are:

• Content creation and communication

• Greater efficiency and productivity

• Customer service

• Data analysis

• Research and information gathering

Local business leaders are worried about Hawai‘i’s economy.

In the latest BOSS Survey, 57% of business owners and executives surveyed felt the state’s economy would get worse in the coming year. That level of pessimism has only been recorded three times before by the BOSS Survey: twice during the Great Recession and once at the start of the COVID pandemic.

This is the first time ever that optimism about the local economy’s near future was so weak while the economy itself was not in a recession. In fact, the BOSS Performance Index and other measures of Hawai‘i’s current economy show relatively good numbers.

The latest forecast from the UH Economic Research Organization reflects similar pessimism about the near future. “Hawai‘i’s economic outlook has taken a decisive turn for the worse, as expansive federal policy shifts look poised to tip the local economy into a mild recession,” said the UHERO forecast issued on May 9.

“Sharp increases in U.S. import tariffs, sweeping federal layoffs, and volatile fiscal and immigration policies are undermining consumer confidence, raising inflation expectations and worsening the business outlook – both nationally and in Hawai‘i’s visitor-dependent economy.”

Boss performance index

The BOSS Performance Index, however, still shows a relatively strong economy. That index measures changes in employment, gross revenue and profit before taxes in the past year among the 341 businesses surveyed – did those three measures go up, down or stay the same at each of the companies?

Survey of Business Leaders: 3 More Reasons for Concern

Concern #1: Weak Spending Plans

The 341 respondents to the BOSS Survey were asked: Which of these three statements best describes your firm’s spending plans for the coming year?

• The percentage of businesses that plan to substantially increase spending matches the lowest percentage since 2020, the worst year of the pandemic.

• The percentage that plans substantial cost cutting is the highest since 2020 – and at least 5 percentage points higher than every year in between.

• A silver lining: Companies in the construction industry tend to be more bullish – 23% plan substantial increases in spending.

Concern #2: Many Fear their Businesses Won’t Survive

Respondents were asked: How confident are you that your company will still be in business three years from now?

• “Somewhat worried” and “Very worried” together totaled 26%. That’s the worst total — by at least 4 percentage points — for those two categories since 2020.

• A silver lining: Again, it’s construction. A related question asked respondents about the short-term prospects for their companies. The most optimistic response was “Will continue to flourish.” Among all businesses, 19% chose that forecast, but among construction companies, 30% did.

Federal spending has long been a bigger part of Hawai‘i’s economy than in most states. When we launched this latest BOSS Survey in April, the federal Department of Government Efficiency, then led by Elon Musk, was announcing major cuts in federal spending. Here are two questions we asked:

Concern #3A: Has your company been affected by actions taken by President Donald Trump’s administration and the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)?

Concern #3B: Have those actions in Washington, D.C., influenced your decision-making or your planning?

More than half of businesses, 52%, said they were affected in some way by the Trump administration and DOGE’s actions. But a significantly larger percentage, 68%, said those actions had at least some influence on their decision-making and planning.

METHODOLOGY: The BOSS Survey of local businesspeople and the 808 Poll of the general public are conducted twice a year for Hawaii Business Magazine by the research division of Anthology/Finn Partners. To learn the methodology for the polls, go to hawaiibusiness.com/bossmethod2025.

The Performance Index – based on changes in employment, gross revenue and profit before taxes at the 357 companies surveyed – fell for the third consecutive survey.

The Optimism Index  – based on those same business people’s feelings about the direction of Hawai‘i’s economy in the next year or two – rebounded from the low score in the previous survey.

We Asked: How Good is Your Life and Community in Hawai‘i?

This chart compares the results from a survey of 357 local businesspeople and a separate survey of 413 members of the general public from across the Islands. How would you answer these questions?

Each respondent was asked to rate aspects of their personal lives and communities using a four-point scale (“Great!” is 4 points and “Awful” is 1). An average score was also computed; the higher the average, the more positive the overall perception. The lowest possible score is 1.00. Percentages do not always total 100 due to rounding and because some businesspeople did not answer each question.

That’s interesting: Business People surveyed rate local businesses overall more poorly than the general public.

How Do You Rate the Governor’s and Legislature’s Work?

Answers were ranked using a four-point scale (“Great!” is 4 and “Awful” is 1). An average score was also computed; the higher the average, the more positive the overall perception. The lowest possible score is 1.00. Percentages do not always total 100 due to rounding and because some businesspeople did not answer each question.

That’s interesting: Green scored higher than the Legislature on each of these questions in both surveys.

Methodology

The BOSS Survey of local businesspeople and the 808 Poll of the general public are conducted twice a year for Hawaii Business Magazine by the research division of Anthology/Finn Partners. See the methodology for the two surveys at hawaiibusiness.com/bossmethod2025.

It isn’t easy being a local retailer: If you survived the Covid shutdowns, you still have to compete with other stores in your neighborhood and on your island, plus online retailers like Amazon and superstore chains like Walmart and Costco.

To gain insights into their successes and challenges, every two years, we conduct a survey of local retailers – large, medium and small. It’s a survey within the overall BOSS Survey of business owners and executives from across the Hawaiian Islands.

The retailers are asked all of the questions that we ask everyone else, plus specific questions designed to understand what’s happening within the retail industry. Here are highlights of the survey we conducted in April and May of this year.

Revenue, Profit and Staffing

On the three main measures of performance – revenue, profit and number of employees – the retailers we surveyed are doing slightly worse overall than the other businesses we surveyed. We asked everyone: What happened on these three measures of performance at your company? Did they go up, hold steady or decline from the year before?

This chart shows the percentage of businesses that said they suffered decreases in these key measures of performance. In each case, a higher percentage of retailers suffered declines than other types of businesses.

Holiday Season Sales

For many retailers, the most important time of the year is the holiday season, from around Thanksgiving to New Year’s Day. So every time we survey retailers, we ask about their latest holiday season and compare it to the previous holiday season. Did sales go up, hold steady or go down?

This chart compares what retailers told us in the latest survey and what retailers said the last time we surveyed them. The results were almost identically gloomy. I had to go back to a BOSS Survey conducted in 2009 to find worse results from retailers.

Customers

We asked the retailers if the overall number of their customers had gone up, held steady or gone down in the past year.

Online Sales

We asked retailers if their company had online sales: 62% said yes. Then we asked those with online sales a few questions.

• We learned that overall, the majority of those online sales were to local people – a result consistent with our previous surveys of local retailers.
• To gauge the impact of online sales on their companies, we gave retailers four options to characterize their online sales. Here is what they chose.

Recent Changes

Retailers were asked to select from this list of options to characterize changes they have made over the past few years. They could choose as many as were appropriate.

What Are Your Challenges?

Retailers were asked which of these challenges 19% their companies face. The percentages reflect how many of the retailers said, “Yes, we face this challenge.” They could select as many challenges as appropriate.

The top challenge for local retailers was, by far, finding good employees. In seven previous surveys of retailers, that challenge was never cited by more than 44% of retailers.

On the other hand, the pressure to reduce prices is at a low ebb. For instance, in 2012, 29% of retailers surveyed said they faced pressure to reduce prices.

Twice a year, the Anthology Marketing Group conducts two polls on behalf of Hawaii Business Magazine. This spring, the BOSS Survey contacted 407 business owners and executives and the 808 Poll reached 459 members of the general public.

Most of the surveys’ responses were published in the August print issue and online at hawaiibusiness.com, but I saved three questions about perennial local issues for this edition. This report also includes the BOSS survey within a survey of the local retail sector.

How to Deal with Hawai‘i’s Declining Population

Respondents in both surveys were presented with the following statement: After decades of growth, Hawai‘i’s population has declined for almost a decade, largely because the high cost of living induces many thousands to move away every year.

In both surveys, the differences on all responses between O‘ahu and Neighbor Island respondents were never more than a few percentage points – all well within the polls’ margins of error. However, there were bigger differences among different segments of the general public:

• Women were more likely than men – 82% to 72% – to agree that a greater effort should be made to lower the cost of living to allow more local people to afford to stay here.
• That same sentiment was shared by 83% of the people born and raised in Hawai‘i, but by only 70% of transplants to the state. Conversely, 16% of transplants favored a smaller state population versus only 7% of those born and raised in Hawai‘i.

They were asked which of the following four options best mirrored their personal view on the subject.

A greater effort should be made to lower the cost of living so people born and raised here can afford to stay

A stagnant or lower population is better for Hawai‘i for various reasons, including less strain on our natural resources and less demand for housing.

No strong feelings about whether Hawai‘i’s population increases or decreases.                                              .

We should try to gradually increase the population because a shrinking population threatens our future as a vibrant economy and society

How to Improve Hawai’i’s Quality of Life

Each respondent was presented with the following nine options and asked to select up to two that they felt would “improve the quality of life in Hawai‘i and create a more vibrant economy.” (Note: All of the 808 Poll and most of the BOSS Survey were conducted before the state Legislature passed and Gov. Josh Green signed into law a substantial cut in state income taxes.

Among businesspeople, here are the biggest differences between O‘ahu and the Neighbor Islands:

• 29% of the businesspeople surveyed on O‘ahu chose “More focus and spending on education and workforce development,” compared with only 12% of Neighbor Island businesspeople.
• 35% of Neighbor Island businesspeople chose “Less government regulation, especially on new housing construction,” compared with only 15% of O‘ahu respondents.

In the 808 Poll of the general public:

• 42% of O‘ahu respondents chose “Lower taxes so people have more money to spend.” On the Neighbor Islands, only 27% picked that option.
• Women were more likely to have chosen “More focus and spending on education and workforce development” than men – 33% vs. 22%. Men were more likely to have chosen “More investment in infrastructure” than women – 26% vs. 16%.
• College graduates were more likely to choose “Diversifying the economy” than those without college degrees – 43% vs. 28%. Meanwhile, 38% of those without college degrees chose “Greater support for small businesses and local enterprises,” compared with 19% of college graduates.

How Much Information Should Be Disclosed?

Respondents in both surveys were presented with the following statement: When people volunteer to serve without pay on public boards in Hawai‘i, they are often required to file disclosures about their income, investments and other details, and these disclosures are then made public.

Many local leaders, including the heads of several state agencies, say these public disclosures discourage many of the best qualified candidates from serving on public boards. They propose an alternative where the ethics commission searches these disclosures for potential conflicts of interest that might disqualify the candidates from serving, but do not disclose the information to the public. What is your opinion on this issue?

Disclosure forms should still be required but they should be vetted by the ethics commission without being released to the public.

Disclosure forms should always be required and made public.

Twice a year, Hawaii Business Magazine asks the Anthology Marketing Group to take the pulse of the local business community. This spring, owners and executives of 407 companies each had unique stories to tell about their firms’ financial situations – ranging from awesome to awful and everything in between.

When taken as a whole, the results of this latest BOSS Survey are worse than last fall’s survey. Much more disturbing is that optimism about the local economy’s future fell dramatically.

“We’re bruised but back on track. We have not fully recovered from 2020 yet, but we work on this every day. We tackled higher food, liquor and labor costs by raising prices, but a lot of hidden costs affect our bottom line.”

— Kaleo Schneider, Director of Operations, Buzz’s Original Steak House (O’ahu)

“We are flourishing. Our sales are strong. We have really good staffing and all our positions are full. We have a good future.”

— Leila Thompson | GM, Window Trends (Kaua’i)

“Barely surviving. We have only booked 3 new weddings since the August fires. The message potential clients get is that those who live on Maui do not want them to come. Another issue is many wedding groups can’t afford the available accommodations.”

— A Maui wedding company that asked to remain anonymous

Optimism about the future – or the lack of it – is a huge factor in business decision-making. Optimistic business leaders will hire more workers, launch expansions and offer new products and services. Less optimistic leaders may freeze or cut staff, delay expansion and reduce product lines or services.

To further probe these attitudes, the survey’s respondents were asked which of these statements best describes their companies’ spending plans for the coming 12 months.

“The economy will hold steady. There’s still a lot of willingness to come to Hawai’i.”

— Byron Kay, Owner, Kona Honu Divers (Hawai’i Island)

“It’s hard to predict… but if housing continues to rise in cost, the economy will fall, because we don’t have the workforce.”

— Nichole Hutaff-Nakamura, President, Valley Isle Excursions

“Speaking with tons of friends, vendors, colleagues in the tourism and wedding industry this year, they are all in the same boat as I am. we’re not getting new business and not sure if it will happen any time in the next few years.”

— A Maui wedding company that asked to remain anonymous

“The economy is getting worse, and I expect this trend will continue until 2026. There are many issues worldwide and until they are cleared up, it will affect our economy.”

— Kaleo Schneider, Buzz’s Original Steak House